Even by India’s falling standards for extrajudicial, partisan government action against Muslims and Dalits, ignoring the violence of Hindu fundamentalists and tolerating hate speech by chief ministers from the ruling party, the days after Narendra Modi began his third term as prime minister have been ominous.

Electoral reverses were supposed to temper Modi 3.0, but a string of Islamophobic atrocities and comments have emanated from states ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party, indicating the continuing – even growing –impunity and confidence that Hindutva groups and the police enjoy.

While the virulence and violence against Muslims are not new, what is more blatant than ever in BJP states is the visible confidence of Hindu fundamentalists that the might of the law and the State will not be used against them.

Nowhere was this faith in police and government inaction clearer last week than in the gleeful faces of the young men on a Maharashtra train, confidently recording their attack on a 65-year-old man whom they accused of carrying beef; or in the young vigilantes in Haryana who murdered a young migrant because they suspected him for eating beef.

Most recent Muslim oppression is reported from BJP states, where chief ministers have, contrary to their constitutional oaths, deployed dog whistles against Muslims and attempted to scare or shame Hindus into backing their party.

In Madhya Pradesh, new chief minister Mohan Yadav said he opposed bulldozer sanskriti but allowed or ordered officials to continue demolition of Muslim homes – for allegedly finding beef in their refrigerators, for rioting. An Adivasi constable who refused to hand over a Muslim accused of “hurting religious sentiments” to Hindu fundamentalists was, instead of being commended, transferred.

Dalits, too, continue to face atrocities in a state with some of the highest crime rates against them – a mother and her child were recently beaten in a police station. The policemen and women concerned were suspended, since no Muslims were involved.

In Assam, where chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has randomly and bizarrely accused Muslims of “flood” and “fertiliser” jihad, declared he was indeed “partisan” and would not allow Muslims to “take over the state”, 30 nativist and Hindu organisations called Muslims “a cancerous disease”. They asked Muslims to leave or “face consequences” after a rape involving a Muslim suspect, who police said drowned in a pond while trying to escape (another Muslim, accused of cow slaughter, was similarly claimed by police in Uttarakhand to have drowned in a pond).

In Uttar Pradesh, where Modi during elections tried to play on Hindu insecurities, Chief Minister Adityanath told Hindus to “unite or perish”. A 55-year-old Muslim woman died after police, with no warrant, broke into her house to search for beef (they didn’t find any). There are few left to speak for Muslims in Uttar Pradesh, where 175 criminal cases have been filed against Muslim politicians, many of whom are in jail.

The escalating official violence and rhetoric against Muslims may come as a surprise since Modi 3.0 is struggling with coalition and a loss of absolute control. But that may precisely be the problem.

Modi has never had to compromise on his core beliefs until now. A series of rollbacks of policies – for instance, the takeover of Muslim land, an attempt to muzzle critics and media online, and the hiring of professionals without affirmative action – have revealed the limitations imposed by the loss of electoral majority.

With his trademark consultation-free and sudden, grand proclamations no longer available, and millions struggling for livelihood more aware than ever of his administrative incapacities, Modi may have little left but Hindutva.

Allowing his chief ministers to continue business as usual when it comes to physical and verbal abuse of Muslims is not just a signal of defiance but a signal to his core constituency that their desire to subjugate Muslims has not been forgotten.

More complicated is the pushback that Modi has been facing from his party’s ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, whose chief has publicly expressed discomfort with the cult of Modi. There is, in the Sangh, some privately expressed discomfort about the relentless tide of Islamophobia and anti-Muslim violence, but that may be insincere since the organisation’s affiliated bodies are often directly responsible.

While the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh is known for playing the long game, surely, even its selective interpretation of the past and the present should make it realise that the disempowerment of Muslims cannot deliver a secure and prosperous nation.

The general elections provided indications that Modi’s divide-and-rule policy, which had earned substantial electoral dividends in terms of growing the Hindu vote and further oppressing Muslims, was delivering diminishing returns. Things may get better, but they will likely get worse before they do.

Samar Halarnkar is the editor of Article-14.com, a website that focusses on issues related to the rule of law and democracy in India.